Ayesa Engineering to conduct a climate risk study on 34 Guadiana River Basin dams, to optimise State investments

The Directorate-General for Water will have access to an advanced tool that will allow it to prioritise actions related to water security.

A multidisciplinary Ayesa team will carry out hydrological, probabilistic, internal erosion and dam stability modelling.

Ayesa Engineering has been selected by the Directorate-General for Water of MITECO to conduct a comprehensive study of the risks associated with climate change in 34 dams managed by the Guadiana River Basin Authority. This initiative will enable the State to rely on an advanced tool to optimise investments and ensure the safety of these critical infrastructures in a context of increasing climate pressure.

The project includes an in-depth analysis of the potential failure modes of each dam, determining the probability of such failures occurring and assessing their consequences in terms of flooding, loss of life and economic damage, providing a full risk assessment.

It also incorporates hydrological and hydraulic modelling under different future climate scenarios, including simulations of flooding caused by extreme events or dam breaches. To achieve this, advanced methodologies will be used, such as probabilistic calculations, numerical techniques, stability models, internal erosion studies, Monte Carlo methods and specific software developed for this purpose.

The final outcome will be a single, unified risk-governance platform integrating all data and reports generated, along with the resulting risk assessment for each dam. This tool will enable the Administration to prioritise actions based on their cost and potential risk reduction, and therefore improving decision-making and optimising the allocation of public resources.

According to Iván Campos-Guereta, project lead at Ayesa, “this contract is an opportunity for Ayesa, as it strengthens our position in the field of dam safety and places us among the pioneering companies applying the new methodology, defined in Spancold Guide No. 8 on Risk Analysis, to assess the State’s dams from a new and consistent perspective.”

The contract, valued at €1.4 million, will run for 24 months within the timeframe of the Next-Generation Funds. To carry it out, Ayesa has assembled a multidisciplinary team specialising in hydrology, geotechnics, computational hydraulics, structural engineering and advanced data processing.

Key actions include 34 calibrated hydrological studies using HEC-HMS, 34 hydraulic models using HEC-RAS 2D under 10 flood or breach scenarios, geotechnical surveys at 18 dams, and the quantitative determination of failure probabilities caused by loose-material sliding, dam-foundation interface sliding, and internal erosion in a selection of the dams under study.

This initiative aligns with the objectives of MITECO and the Directorate-General for Water to modernise risk management and strengthen the safety of State-owned dams, contributing to population protection and the adaptation of infrastructures to climate change.

With this contract, Ayesa Ingeniería continues to consolidate its position as a benchmark in major water-engineering projects and the advanced management of strategic infrastructures. “Our commitment is to place our expertise in engineering, digitalisation and risk analysis at the service of the State to enhance the resilience of infrastructures essential to society,” says Iván Campos-Guereta.