Published on 22 January 2025
The next disruptive force in business will go beyond digital transformation and it will be driven by the integration of artificial intelligence—shaping a new era that analysts call "autonomous businesses."
Since 1980, Information Technology (IT) has driven business transformation in three distinct phases, each lasting around 15 years. In the first phase, companies adopted information systems to support management and operations. Fifteen years later, e-business emerged, introducing new channels and disrupting industries through the Internet. About a decade ago, digital businesses took off, reshaping industries by redefining what to sell and how to structure business models driven by these new technological ecosystems.
After nearly 45 years, 2025 marks the beginning of the fourth stage in business evolution (though it's uncertain whether it will last as long as the previous phases). This new phase is emerging as the era of "self-managed" businesses. The focus has shifted from how to operate a business, how to sell online, what products to sell, and under which model. Instead, the emphasis is now on using IT to determine who buys from us, what services/products we sell, and the distribution channels.
This new era sees a shift from supporting business operations, e-commerce, and digitisation towards creating new organisational types: autonomous businesses. We have talked about digital transformation and digital businesses for years, but today could be the dawn of a new era.
We are not talking about robotic factories, although that is part of the picture. We are talking about businesses partly or wholly managed by "intelligent software" agents. These agents will be in charge of autonomous business processes, capable of making their own decisions, taking their own actions (as intermediaries), and continuously learning so they improve performance, efficiency, and results.
These software agents can integrate with intelligent manufacturing processes to personalise products or services at every touchpoint based on customer preferences gathered through conversational interfaces. However, not all tasks need human intervention, though direct or deferred supervision is still possible. Meanwhile, algorithms are becoming increasingly capable of handling more complex models.
As always, when we talk about transformation, the shift won’t occur simultaneously across all sectors, and not all companies will progress at the same pace. It’s likely to be a gradual process. Along the way, this transition will undoubtedly spark important debates—ethical, labour, legal, and administrative—similar to those seen during the previous stages of the digital age. At this stage, it's still unclear how deeply and widely autonomous operations and management will impact businesses and industries.