Ayesa Engineering to deliver risk assessment for 34 Guadiana basin dams to strengthen state investment planning

Ayesa will provide an advanced decision-support platform to strengthen asset management for the Spanish Directorate-General for Water and enable more effective State investment and planning as climate pressures on critical water infrastructure intensify.

Spain’s Directorate-General for Water, part of the Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO), has appointed Ayesa Engineering to deliver a comprehensive risk study for 34 dams managed by the Guadiana River Basin Authority. The programme will develop an advanced decision-support system to strengthen asset resilience and enhance the safety of critical water infrastructure as climate pressures intensify. This initiative supports MITECO and the Directorate-General for Water in modernising risk management for State-owned dams, improving community protection and ensuring that Spain’s strategic water infrastructure is prepared for the impacts of a changing climate.

The Importance of the Guadiana River Basin Dams

The dams overseen by the Guadiana River Basin Authority form a critical part of Spain’s strategic water infrastructure. They safeguard water supply for households, agriculture and industry in a region heavily affected by drought, support hydropower generation and provide essential flood protection for downstream communities. Their performance is central to water security and climate resilience across the Guadiana basin.

Comprehensive Risk, Failure-Mode and Hydraulic Analysis

Ayesa’s scope begins with a full analysis of potential failure modes for each dam, assessing the likelihood of occurrence and the consequences for flooding, loss of life and economic damage. The team will apply advanced hydrological and hydraulic modelling to evaluate how each structure performs under future climate scenarios, including simulations of extreme events such as overtopping, high-magnitude flooding or breach conditions. The analytical approach incorporates probabilistic methods, numerical modelling, stability assessments, internal-erosion studies, Monte Carlo simulations and customised software developed specifically for the programme.

The programme also includes developing 34 hydrological studies using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to understand how water flows into each dam. In parallel, Ayesa will create 34 two-dimensional hydraulic models using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to simulate water behaviour under ten different climate-stress and breach scenarios. Geotechnical investigations will be carried out at eighteen dams to examine ground conditions and evaluate potential structural risks, including foundation sliding, internal erosion and material instability.

A 24-Month Programme Supported by EU Next-Generation Funds

Ayesa has won this €1.4 million contract that forms part of the EU Next-Generation Funds framework. Next-Generation projects are designed to accelerate the green transition, digitalisation and resilience across Member States. Within this framework, funding supports the modernisation of essential public infrastructure, stronger climate adaptation and improved long-term environmental governance.

A Multidisciplinary Approach

Ayesa will deliver the assignment through a multidisciplinary team spanning hydrology, geotechnics, computational hydraulics, structural engineering and advanced data analytics. The outcome will be a unified risk-governance platform bringing together all datasets, analyses and findings, with a clear risk profile for each dam. This will enable the Administration to prioritise interventions based on cost and risk, supporting more informed decision-making and the effective allocation of public resources.

According to Iván Campos-Guereta, Project Lead at Ayesa Engineering, “This contract is a significant milestone for Ayesa. It reinforces our role in dam-safety engineering and places us among the front runners applying the new methodology set out in Spancold Guide No. 8 on Risk Analysis, enabling a more consistent and forward-looking assessment of State-owned dams.”

“This assignment underscores Ayesa Ingeniería’s position as a reference partner in major water-engineering projects and in the advanced management of strategic assets,” adds Campos-Guereta. “Our objective is to apply our capabilities in engineering, digitalisation and risk analysis to strengthen the resilience of infrastructures that are critical to society.”

Ranked 16th globally for Water Supply design and engineering (ENR Global Sourcebook), Ayesa supports water authorities around the world as they respond to today’s challenges and build resilience for the future.

_{Header image: La Serena Reservoir, one of the largest reservoirs in the Guadiana River basin, located in Badajoz, Extremadura (Image from Adobe Stock).}